1/ Everyone wants to know when #Bitcoin will bottom. I have some good news and some bad news. Which would you like first?
2/ Bad news, right? Everyone wants the bad news first. If you can stomach the broccoli you’ll get rewarded with dessert. At least, that’s what I tell my daughter!
3/ Ok, here goes: bear market bottoms are NOT formed as sharp V-like corrections, retaking the highs; that’s what bull markets look like.
4/ Fear is not the opposite of greed, apathy is. Fear and greed are just two sides of the same coin: captivation.
5/ Bear market bottoms are formed after prolonged periods of false rallies, increasing disinterest and eventual apathy. The mindset is “I give up, I’ll look for returns elsewhere”. It also coincides with a dwindling of media interest.
6/ Sadly, we’re not there yet and may not be for many months. I think it is unlikely we will wait for years, however, since the fundamentals of Bitcoin - security, usability, liquidity - are all improving rapidly.
7/ Now the good news. Bitcoin is not done, not by a long shot. Good ideas don’t die easily and not when they are as anti-fragile as Bitcoin is.
8/ The development of an easily transmittable, non-confiscatable, non-inflationary currency is profoundly important. People of the world can now keep savings without fear of confiscation or debasement. This has NEVER been possible before.
9/ Further, the real work of making Bitcoin more valuable continues apace:
10/ And if you speak with kids today, you will find that very few of them are interested in gold, but almost all of them know about (or own) Bitcoin. That alone tells you the future. Bitcoin WILL overtake gold in market capitalization eventually.
11/ So whether the bear market lasts a few months, or even a few years, Bitcoin is still massively undervalued today.